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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Hi everyone,

I hope it is okay that I open a "political" thread in the up! forum.
I don't want to argue all the pros and cons!!!

And I want no conflicts or quarrels here!


But tomorrow Scotland will vote about staying in the union or not.
It is on German TV and internet every day. We have special reports and expert discussions about it on TV.

Independence would surely mean a lot of changes ...
Leave the GBP? Get the Euro someday???
Don't know if Scotish up!s were also sold by VW UK or if there were be a VW Scotland?
Especially if you have to leave the GBP. Maybe a "ScEuro", 1:1 to the Euro until you get it???

As far as I know, the Scots want The Queen to remain their queen (which is a wise decision to my mind) what ever happens.

What do you think?
Will Scotland seperate - and maybe: would you like it or not?
Do Scotish see a future in a "Great Europe" more than in an "America aligned" Great Britain?

Please don't take this too serious!

I am just interested as a spectator and would like to read some English (Welsh?) and Scottish comments / views of non-politics ...
 

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My biggest problem with scotland is they get to vote!!! Why cant the rest of the uk get a say on wether we want them?
They already get free nhs parking, free nhs precriptions and free university fees probably subsidised by the rest of the union. I say vote them out!!!

They should lose the pound and have their own scottish currency or euro as they want to be independant.
They will have to appy to be in europe anyway. If europe wants them?. What have they got to offer ? They only want to take off of the rest of the uk.
Turn off all bbc transmiters over their border as they dont want to pay for our tv as we do. But they certainly want to watch it!!!.

As far as in concerned if they go ,they go totally, no half measures we want to keep this n that. Not happening jock !!!!!
Didnt germany try this and decide its better to be a whole.

I hope they go, fully totally, and for good. The grass isnt always greener but when they get there and see that for themselves that loud noise behind them they hear will be that of the door slamming.....
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Hi spcvw,

asked about Germany ...
Wanting the union of FRG and GDR stood in our "Grundgesetz" (German "constituion" - a bit difficult to explain. A real constitution should have been made after reunion but has never been made) from 1949. All "main" poltitical parties wanted the (as long as it was impossible to get).
I not only raised up in West Germany but in Western Germany (Dutch Border). Still I understand Dutch people more than (some) people from the East. And the difference between Noth and South has always existed. I have to pay attention if someone from Bavaria speaks German like a Londoner might have problems to understand a Scots who speaks English. Even if I was unimployed, I would NEVER take a job in Bavaria. That's not my kind of living. Hamburg or Hannover? Sure! I am a "North-Westerner" ...

I can understand your statement!
But that's nearly what "we" think about the UK in the EU ...

They only want to benefit, get a "British extras" since Margret Satcher ...

And there are many people in Europe who say: You want to leave the EU? Go! But no ECC ...

I have heard that Scots already get special benefits, people in England don't get. I can understand very well that you are angry about it!

Thanx for your statement!

By the way ...
One of our commercial TV programs has a Scotland evening today!
With "Breaveheart" and "Highlander" ...
 

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I'm a politics PhD so I'll answer some of your questions to the best of my ability. :)



Cadfael said:
Hi everyone,

I hope it is okay that I open a "political" thread in the up! forum.
I don't want to argue all the pros and cons!!!

And I want no conflicts or quarrels here!


But tomorrow Scotland will vote about staying in the union or not.
It is on German TV and internet every day. We have special reports and expert discussions about it on TV.
It's a big international event. It could separate out one of the biggest and oldest economies in the world.

Cadfael said:
Independence would surely mean a lot of changes ...
Leave the GBP? Get the Euro someday???
There's no decision on the currency, yet. The SNP (Scottish nationalists) have indicated they want a currency union (this would set the Bank of England up as a lender of last resort who would step in should any Scottish institutions [eg banks] fail, whereas Westminster has said no.

The 4 options are:
- currency union (ruled out),
- so called Sterlingisation (where scotland would use sterling but have no influence on it - i.e. would be at the mercy of market forces in the rUK (Rest of UK),
- make their own currency (nye on impossible in the short term as they don't have capital reserves to ensure a 1:1 transition from Sterling to a new currency or to be a lender of last resort) or
- join the Euro (Spain has already said they would veto any attempts from an independent Scotland to join the EU, most likely due to the message it would send to separatists in their own country. There's also a question whether Scotland (if it wanted to join the EU at
all) would have to negotiate via Article 48. of the TEU (internal) or
A.49 (External). If the latter it could theoretically take several years
before anything is finalised. There are implications for their currency as well as it's unclear whether the would be forced by the EU to adopt the Euro.

Cadfael said:
Don't know if Scotish up!s were also sold by VW UK or if there were be a VW Scotland?
Especially if you have to leave the GBP. Maybe a "ScEuro", 1:1 to the Euro until you get it???
As above - completely unknown but odds on favorite is sterlingisation thanks to all other options being off the table for the immediate future.

Cadfael said:
As far as I know, the Scots want The Queen to remain their queen (which is a wise decision to my mind) what ever happens.

What do you think?
Will Scotland seperate - and maybe: would you like it or not?
Do Scotish see a future in a "Great Europe" more than in an "America aligned" Great Britain?

Please don't take this too serious!

I am just interested as a spectator and would like to read some English (Welsh?) and Scottish comments / views of non-politics ...
I think it will be a narrow no. There's a so-called 'silent majority', mostly older generations who have fond memories of a union who don't often engage in polls and don't give their views in public. I saw one women in a news story who, when confronted by someone who was a 'yes' voter that was saying there are more yes posters in people's windows than no posters, responded by saying that everyone who doesn't have a yes poster is a no, which makes sense.

Right, time for bias from an Englishman with a Scottish heritage (Scottish surname).

I think separation would be a disaster, economically and socially, for both Scotland and the rUK. As above, the SNP have repeatedly claimed that there would be currency union, but have given no evidence as to how that would occur considering it has been ruled out by both Westminster and the Bank of England, the two entities that exert de facto control over Sterling. There have already been a myriad of companies who have said they will move out of Scotland should yes win tomorrow, including no less the Bank of Scotland who have already said they will move their HQ to London.

The SNP have promised the world in their campaign, including (among other things), continued free higher education, free prescription charges, increased funding for the NHS (already debunked as this article elucidates: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29213416 ), higher employment and further revenues from Aberdeen and North Sea Oil, and a fully functioning independent state in less than 2 years (a laughable timeframe by anyone's standards).

For example, nobody without exception truly knows how many barrels of oil are actually left in the north sea, but the SNP have dedicated their entire economic plan on the very highest prediction (£1.5trill>). The lowest prediction is £250bill, and anyone who knows anything about financial forecasting and planning knows at the very least you take the lowest prediction to plan a worse case scenario. Any questions over economic policies and the actual plans for making a new Scottish State (including all the structures which will need to be created as well) are met with either silence or heckling from SNP campaigners (I know, I've been on the receiving end of some of it).

there's also the issue of assets and liabilities that are currently shared between Scotland the rest of the UK. The SNP have said they want all the assets (eg. North Sea Oil), but none of the liabilities (shared welfare bill, national debt etc). They've said they will simply absolve themselves of the debt, but this is amazingly bizarre considering this could be viewed by markets as a simple default (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-and-lose-pound-within-a-year-Scots-told.html ). Interest rates would undoubtedly go up meaning borrowers would face higher bills (all those mortgages), which also means the new Scottish government would find borrowing for their welfare programs more expensive and hence taxes would have to go up or cuts would have to be made.

It's all speculation, naturally, but the yes campaign hasn't confronted any of these issues in the past few months. Go online and look for answers to these questions from Scots who are worried about the actual implications of Independence and you'll struggle to find any responses from the yes campaign.


Edited by: Fidel_Castronaut
 

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Im not too clued up on german history lol
Highlander and braveheart are two quality films !!!

If scotland stay, we give then extra benefits ,they win, we sort of win, status quo
If they go they still want the best of everything and take more.
Not too angry but i say if they want to go then they only get whats theirs. Not ours too.lol
 

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Thanks for that, Fidel - very good summary of the situation.

BTW - I never knew that Castronaut was a Scottish name
 

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Just a couple of observations :

Who would get custody of Andy Murray.

If Scotland had their own currency they could call it Sean Coinnery !

Edited by: Derkie54
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
Thanx Fidel for this excellent view onto UK politics!


I don't think Spain will say no as long as "mummy" ("Mutti" is the not always well meant nickname of Merkel) rules Germany ...
I think Germany / German government would want Scotland in the EU and 80% in the Euro.
I don't know how the Scotish-French relations are today but historically there were excellent relations in the past ...

Question is, if / how many of the quiet "NO" sayers will go to the poll to vote.

The Scots are surely proud to be Scots - but they are somehow also British (not English) after 300 year???
(The) Scots Guard(s) fought at Waterloo, at the Marne, Ypern, Norway, Tobruk, (Venlo, the Reichswald, Cleve, Moyland - where I was born and lived 40 years), Falkland. They didn't served and die for Scotland but for the United Kingdom.

A hard decision for a people who fought the romans, saxons, vikings, normans but have been part of the UK for 300 years ...
 

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Great explanation by Fidel - and I alsounderstand some of the points spec made. I personally am unsure what I'd like the decision to be - and there is a lot I don't understand such as border control? Will we be able to just pop to Scotland without our passports etc?

There is a part of me that wants them to leave - just as I believe it would be funny to see them struggle (schadenfreude I know), but I genuinely believe them staying is the wisest choice in terms of the UK.

Aye they may be scots, but they're Brits too!
 

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i hope they keep the gbp ore get there owen money, cause i have not met a singel german, that loves the euro, they hate it like the plage.alot off danes also would like leeve europe inc me , it´s nothing but crap laws that have no meening, back to the old nordic allience denmark, sweden, norwegen and finland(ps. scotland and uk would be more the welcome
).
sadly germany is to far in the with eu
 

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Referring to the question posed by Cadfael, in his opening thread, as to whether a 'Yes' vote would lead to a new VW head office in Scotland, my opinion is that we may eventually see such an introduction, only after the important matters, surrounding its division, have been decided upon.

The introduction of a VW Scotland head office, serving Scottish customers and dealerships, would no doubt be welcomed by those north of the border in the sense that it would certainly create jobs, thus supporting an economy that will be desperate to grow.

Sadly, if such a head office was eventually introduced, it would likely be located in either Edinburgh or Glasgow, due to their established centres of commerce, rail and road links, meaning that they would become richer, while towns and villages in the further reaches would become even more isolated than they are currently, given that many economists have predicted a bleak long-term economic future for Scotland should it choose independence.

On to the politics surrounding the referendum vote, one of the driving factors behind where the UK currently finds itself is due to the lack MPs representing the Scottish electorate in Westminster, based upon its 'first past the post' voting policy.

One of the conditions cited by the Lib Dems, upon forming a coalition government, was that the voting system, currently employed within the UK would also be reviewed, thus allowing far greater representation of the voting electorate.

Moreover, off the back of the 2010 General Election, the fact that the Conservatives failed to obtain a single parliamentary seat amongst the Scottish electorate further played into the hands of the SNP, in terms of pushing for a referendum on independence, hence the reason the UK now finds itself facing the grave risk of separation.

With regard to my comments in the paragraph above, to a degree, I understand the reasons behind those in Scotland campaigning for independence from Westminster. Equally, constituents in certain parts of England and Wales also feel under-represented in the house of commons.

However, the current administration took office amidst a global economic downturn with no option to introduce a host of austerity measures, designed to reduce the country's debt to a manageable level, after the previous administration had taken the UK's level of borrowing to almost unmanageable levels.

As stated by others, despite their 'acclaimed lack of representation' throughout the economic downturn, the current administration has ensured that Scotland has continued to benefit from free prescriptions, free university education and increased spending per head over and above the rest of the UK (Barnett Ruling).

By all accounts, I don't think Scotland has fared too badly throughout the economic downturn, yet Alex Salmond has repeatedly continued to bite the hand that feeds his SNP campaign.

Regardless of the vote, I'd suggest that David Cameron, as Prime Minister of the rUK, seeks to act by protecting the interests of the electorate south of the Scottish border, most importantly, by refusing representatives of Scottish nationality the opportunity to run for Westminster Parliamentary seats in the forth-coming general election.

Should he be unfortunate enough to oversee the loss of a union in his time of PM, the only way for him to remain as leader of the party is to take a hard-line against the 'hand-biting' displayed by those north of the border when it comes to negotiating the separation of assets.

If he refuses, there's an unkempt, flossy haired understudy, who appeals to the political class, ready and able to seize his opportunity to return to this country to the standing that it once held in the world.

You may laugh at my suggestion, but don't allow his appearance to deceive you. Beneath his flossy blonde locks, I see a shrewd leader, one who has gained the trust of the electorate, since he is viewed as the only politician in the current age worthy of trust.

Granted, he may be perceived as one who lacks political correctness but I believe that a return to such an ideal would go a long way to fixing what is wrong the 21st Century.

Regardless of the decision, whether you love or loathe the idea of independence within a union, the face of politics in the UK has whole-heartedly changed, particularly as other areas of the UK will now be watching with keen interest on how the vote unfolds.
 
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